Thursday, January 18, 2024

WWIII will likely be like WWI, a series of border conflicts that eventually spill out in to a major war

 WWIII will likely be like WWI, a series of border conflicts that eventually spill out in to a major war

I've said before that it appears we've been fast approaching a WWI type scenario for the last three years, but it's never been more prominent than today. WWI was the result of a number of small border skirmishes escalating in to several major wars, until it resulted in a single large war that had dramatic changes to the world and particularly Europe for generations to come. WWI was so extreme it eventually directly lead to WWII, with the political climate created during WWI directly leading to WWII. Be it Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Gaza, Venezuela and Guyana, or now even Pakistan and Iran, it would appear as if the world is devolving in to chaos. There have also been more than a dozen coups, such as in Myanmar, the Congo, and Ethiopia, and civil wars spilling out in to the surrounding areas, such as Houthi rebels launching missiles at random ships. China announced that reunification with Taiwan was inevitable, and may happen as early as this year, signaling an intent to potentially invade Taiwan as well. Given the current circumstances, it would be hard to imagine China wouldn't take advantage of the Chaos and distraction as well. North Korea has even threatened to invade South Korea. The backdrop of WWI had the Spanish Flu (Covid), Communist revolution and Spanish civil war (various coups and civil war), numerous border conflicts that erupted in to a larger global crisis, and political world-changing events such as the Communists in Russia, Fascists in Italy, or even the Nazi party in Germany getting their first political babysteps during or immediately following WWI. Be it the Francoists in spain, the Nazis in Germany, the Communists in Russia or the Fascists in Italy, all of them were shaped by WWI, with many if not most of their adherents being WWI veterans and gaining power during WWI. 

When the U.S. withdrew from Vietnam, it was not an end to the region's troubles. The Viet cong would later invade Cambodia and Laos, and eventually China would invade Vietnam, resulting the death in the region of several million, including 2.6 million in the killing fields alone. Without the U.S. to serve as a shared enemy, the region immediately fragmented, despite every country being communist and allies at one point, and each country plunged in to war with each other. The Sino-Soviet split, or Chinese-Russian split occurred at around the same time as well, igniting tensions between the two most powerful communist countries in the world at the time. The entire region destabilized and balkanized without the U.S. presence, and resulted in millions of deaths, potentially up to 10 million if starvation and disease are considered, or other early deaths. The U.S. pulling out of Afghanistan seems to be creating the same problem, igniting tensions between virtually every middle eastern neighbor, particularly with Pakistan and Iran, with Pakistan largely forming, financing and controlling the Taliban who've taken over large swaths of Afghanistan. Without the "Great Satan" to serve as an outlet of aggression, the islamic national socialist governments have all turned on each other, and border skirmishes are erupting that could easily turn in to major conflicts, be it Iran and Pakistan, the Yemeni Houthi Rebels and numerous countries, or the various anti-Israel terror groups backed by numerous powers, particularly Iran. 

WWI was marked by trench warfare, and thus far fighting in the Ukraine-Russian war has revolved around trenches, and tunnels in Israel and Gaza. One particular feature of this type of warfare was, that aside form initial gains early in the war, no one side could gain a very clear advantage, thus leading to stalemates that lead to constant costly human wave charges or the deaths of thousands of people with no real change in ground. Border skirmishes frequently go this form of warfare, such as in the Iran-Iraq war, and even with modern weapons little has changed since the days of WWI or WWII other than the sophistication and capabilities of offensives, as well as their marginally higher probability of success. We may simply be looking at the first salvos of the war,